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São Carlos U20 vs Velo Clube U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Carlos U20
São Carlos U20
FT
0 – 4
Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
4/12/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São Carlos U2020%
×Draw20%
Velo Clube U2059%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Carlos U20
1.20
Velo Clube U20
2.17

Velo Clube U20 creates 81% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 20 away

creates per match

São Carlos U20
1.00
Velo Clube U20
0.95

allows per match

São Carlos U20
3.40
Velo Clube U20
1.40

finishing

São Carlos U20+0.00on par
Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 65Under: 3565%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Carlos U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

São Carlos U20 or draw
41%
São Carlos U20 or Velo Clube U20
80%
Draw or Velo Clube U20
80%

Winning margin

São Carlos U20 wins by 2+
8%
Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

São Carlos U20 1+ goals
70%
São Carlos U20 2+ goals
34%
São Carlos U20 3+ goals
12%
Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
89%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
64%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

São Carlos U20 (draw refunded)
26%
Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Carlos U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Carlos U20 attack 1.00 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + São Carlos U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

São Carlos U20 scores more
20%
level
20%
Velo Clube U20 scores more
59%

Velo Clube U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Velo Clube U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São Carlos U20 0–4 Velo Clube U20

Velo Clube U20 beat São Carlos U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Prof. Luís Augusto de Oliveira in São Carlos, São Paulo.