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São Caetano U20 vs Taubaté U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Taubaté U20
Taubaté U20
Unknown 90+5', 1'
Unknown 32'
7/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

São Caetano U2055%
×Draw23%
Taubaté U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Caetano U20
1.88
Taubaté U20
1.13

São Caetano U20 creates 66% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

São Caetano U20
1.29
Taubaté U20
1.13

allows per match

São Caetano U20
1.14
Taubaté U20
2.47

finishing

São Caetano U20+0.00on par
Taubaté U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano U20 ↓

Taubaté U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

São Caetano U20 or draw
77%
São Caetano U20 or Taubaté U20
77%
Draw or Taubaté U20
45%

Winning margin

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
31%
Taubaté U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

São Caetano U20 1+ goals
85%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
56%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
29%
Taubaté U20 1+ goals
68%
Taubaté U20 2+ goals
31%
Taubaté U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Taubaté U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano U20 attack 1.29 + Taubaté U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.88

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

São Caetano U20 scores more
55%
level
23%
Taubaté U20 scores more
23%

São Caetano U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "São Caetano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
32'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Caetano U20 vs Taubaté U20

São Caetano U20 beat Taubaté U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 25, 2025.

Goals: ? (1', 32', 90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo.