Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

São Caetano U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
A. S. Bispo 77'
A. Faisca 23'
8/2/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

São Caetano U2026%
×Draw25%
Novorizontino U2049%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Caetano U20
1.10
Novorizontino U20
1.61

Novorizontino U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 25 away

creates per match

São Caetano U20
1.29
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

São Caetano U20
1.14
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

São Caetano U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

São Caetano U20 or draw
51%
São Caetano U20 or Novorizontino U20
75%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
74%

Winning margin

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
10%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

São Caetano U20 1+ goals
67%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
30%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
10%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
80%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
48%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
35%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano U20 attack 1.29 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.10

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

São Caetano U20 scores more
26%
level
25%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
49%

Novorizontino U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
A. Faisca
77'
A. S. Bispo
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Caetano U20 vs Novorizontino U20

Novorizontino U20 beat São Caetano U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on August 2, 2024.

Goals: A. Faisca (23'), A. S. Bispo (77').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo.