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São Caetano U20 vs Jose Bonifacio EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
Alejandro 90+5'
R. T. Estraich 69'
E. Vieira dos Santos 30'
6/21/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

São Caetano U2038%
×Draw25%
Jose Bonifacio EC U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Caetano U20
1.46
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

creates per match

São Caetano U20
1.29
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.73

allows per match

São Caetano U20
1.14
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.64

finishing

São Caetano U20+0.00on par
Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 55Under: 4555%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano U20 ↓

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

São Caetano U20 or draw
63%
São Caetano U20 or Jose Bonifacio EC U20
75%
Draw or Jose Bonifacio EC U20
62%

Winning margin

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
18%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

São Caetano U20 1+ goals
77%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
43%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
18%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals
76%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals
42%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano U20 attack 1.29 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

São Caetano U20 scores more
38%
level
25%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more
37%

São Caetano U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "São Caetano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
E. Vieira dos Santos
69'
R. T. Estraich
90+5'
Alejandro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São Caetano U20 3–0 Jose Bonifacio EC U20

São Caetano U20 beat Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 21, 2024.

Goals: E. Vieira dos Santos (30'), R. T. Estraich (69'), Alejandro (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo.