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São Caetano U20 vs Inter Limeira U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Inter Limeira U20
Inter Limeira U20
Thomaz 19'
P. Santos 6'
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

São Caetano U2042%
×Draw26%
Inter Limeira U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Caetano U20
1.40
Inter Limeira U20
1.19

São Caetano U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

São Caetano U20
1.29
Inter Limeira U20
1.25

allows per match

São Caetano U20
1.14
Inter Limeira U20
1.50

finishing

São Caetano U20+0.00on par
Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 52Over: 4852%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano U20 ↓

Inter Limeira U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

São Caetano U20 or draw
68%
São Caetano U20 or Inter Limeira U20
74%
Draw or Inter Limeira U20
58%

Winning margin

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
20%
Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

São Caetano U20 1+ goals
75%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
41%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
17%
Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals
70%
Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals
33%
Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
57%
Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Inter Limeira U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano U20 attack 1.29 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.25 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

São Caetano U20 scores more
42%
level
26%
Inter Limeira U20 scores more
32%

São Caetano U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "São Caetano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
P. Santos
19'
Thomaz
78'
K. Corcino
78'
Maykon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Caetano U20 vs Inter Limeira U20

Inter Limeira U20 beat São Caetano U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

Goals: P. Santos (6'), Thomaz (19').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo.