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São Caetano U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
EC São Bernardo U20
EC São Bernardo U20
Michel 90+6'
Ledson 40'
7/17/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

São Caetano U2040%
×Draw27%
EC São Bernardo U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Caetano U20
1.29
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

São Caetano U20 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

São Caetano U20
1.29
EC São Bernardo U20
1.15

allows per match

São Caetano U20
1.14
EC São Bernardo U20
1.30

finishing

São Caetano U20+0.00on par
EC São Bernardo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 56Over: 4456%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano U20 ↓

EC São Bernardo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

São Caetano U20 or draw
67%
São Caetano U20 or EC São Bernardo U20
73%
Draw or EC São Bernardo U20
60%

Winning margin

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
18%
EC São Bernardo U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

São Caetano U20 1+ goals
72%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
37%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
14%
EC São Bernardo U20 1+ goals
68%
EC São Bernardo U20 2+ goals
32%
EC São Bernardo U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
55%
EC São Bernardo U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

EC São Bernardo U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano U20 attack 1.29 + EC São Bernardo U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

EC São Bernardo U20 attack 1.15 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

São Caetano U20 scores more
40%
level
27%
EC São Bernardo U20 scores more
33%

São Caetano U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "São Caetano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
Ledson
90+5'
90+6'
Michel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Caetano U20 vs EC São Bernardo U20

São Caetano U20 beat EC São Bernardo U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 17, 2026.

Goals: Ledson (40'), Michel (90+6').