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São Caetano U20 vs Aster Brasil SP U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Caetano U20
São Caetano U20
FT
1 – 0
Aster Brasil SP U20
Aster Brasil SP U20
4/12/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São Caetano U2042%
×Draw30%
Aster Brasil SP U2028%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Caetano U20
1.15
Aster Brasil SP U20
0.87

São Caetano U20 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

São Caetano U20
1.29
Aster Brasil SP U20
0.60

allows per match

São Caetano U20
1.14
Aster Brasil SP U20
1.00

finishing

São Caetano U20+0.00on par
Aster Brasil SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 60Yes: 4060%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Caetano U20 ↓

Aster Brasil SP U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

São Caetano U20 or draw
72%
São Caetano U20 or Aster Brasil SP U20
70%
Draw or Aster Brasil SP U20
58%

Winning margin

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+
18%
Aster Brasil SP U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

São Caetano U20 1+ goals
68%
São Caetano U20 2+ goals
32%
São Caetano U20 3+ goals
11%
Aster Brasil SP U20 1+ goals
58%
Aster Brasil SP U20 2+ goals
22%
Aster Brasil SP U20 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)
60%
Aster Brasil SP U20 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Caetano U20 at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Aster Brasil SP U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Caetano U20 attack 1.29 + Aster Brasil SP U20 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aster Brasil SP U20 attack 0.60 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

São Caetano U20 scores more
42%
level
30%
Aster Brasil SP U20 scores more
28%

São Caetano U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "São Caetano U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: São Caetano U20 1–0 Aster Brasil SP U20

São Caetano U20 beat Aster Brasil SP U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Anacleto Campanella in São Caetano do Sul, São Paulo.