São Bernardo 2–2 Sampaio Corrêa RJ: Result & Stats

São Bernardo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Dudu Miraima 38'

Luizao 23'

Elias 50', 45'

3/29/2026

Copa Sul-Sudeste · Group Stage - 2Estadio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

São Bernardo45%

×Draw26%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchSampaio Corrêa RJ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

São Bernardo

1.50

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

1.17

São Bernardo creates 28% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.00

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

1.00

allows per match

São Bernardo

1.33

Sampaio Corrêa RJ

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par

Sampaio Corrêa RJ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

Sampaio Corrêa RJ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

70%

São Bernardo or Sampaio Corrêa RJ

74%

Draw or Sampaio Corrêa RJ

55%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

22%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

78%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

44%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

19%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1+ goals

69%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 2+ goals

33%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

60%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Sampaio Corrêa RJ away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.00 + Sampaio Corrêa RJ defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sampaio Corrêa RJ attack 1.00 + São Bernardo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

São Bernardo scores more

45%

level

26%

Sampaio Corrêa RJ scores more

30%

São Bernardo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

23'

37'

38'

40'

42'

45'

46'

Felipe Rodrigues← Dudu Miraima

50'

Elias

59'

Lucas Rian← Junior Urso

59'

Fabricio Daniel← Echapora

60'

Romisson← Pedrinho

61'

Hugo Sanches

67'

Gregory← Walber

75'

Helder Maciel

90'

90+7'

São

Sampaio

1

2

3

4

6

5

10

8

▼

Walber

7

Agu

11

Manhaes

9

⚽2

12

21

3

90

⚽

Luizao

16

Ferraz

77

Silva

26

⚽

▼

Miraima

30

▼

Urso

27

▼

Echapora

89

Amorim

29

▼

Pedrinho

Manager: Catala Ricardo

46'▲Felipe Rodrigues←▼Dudu Miraima

59'▲Lucas Rian←▼Junior Urso

59'▲Fabricio Daniel←▼Echapora

60'▲Romisson←▼Pedrinho

São Bernardo substitutes

40Nogueira2Ferreira6Para7Rian10Daniel17Romisson19Costa20Rodrigues25Gonzaga35Jemerson37Davi39Hwaskar

Manager: Surian Felipe

67'▲Gregory←▼Walber

Sampaio Corrêa RJ substitutes

12Eduardo13Andrade14Diniz15Martini16Gregory17Jean18Potiguar19Victor

Copa Sul-Sudeste: São Bernardo 2–2 Sampaio Corrêa RJ

São Bernardo and Sampaio Corrêa RJ drew 2-2 in Copa Sul-Sudeste on March 29, 2026.

Goals: Luizao (23'), Dudu Miraima (38'), Elias (45', 50').

The match was played at Estadio Primeiro de Maio in Sao Bernardo.

São Bernardo vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ — Copa Sul-Sudeste 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Sul-Sudeste: São Bernardo 2–2 Sampaio Corrêa RJ