São Bernardo 3–0 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

São Bernardo

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ponte Preta

Fabricio Daniel 79' (pen)

Para 52'

Foguinho 13'

5/3/2026

Serie B · Round 7Estádio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

São Bernardo51%

×Draw27%

Ponte Preta22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.81

São Bernardo

1.40

Ponte Preta

0.81

São Bernardo creates 73% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

0.93

0.68

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.18

Ponte Preta

0.93

allows per match

São Bernardo

0.68

Ponte Preta

1.63

-0.05on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

São Bernardo-0.05on par

Ponte Preta-0.08on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

78%

São Bernardo or Ponte Preta

73%

Draw or Ponte Preta

49%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

25%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

75%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

41%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

17%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

56%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

19%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

70%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.68 · 8 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.63 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.18 + Ponte Preta defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ponte Preta attack 0.93 + São Bernardo defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

São Bernardo scores more

51%

level

27%

Ponte Preta scores more

22%

São Bernardo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Foguinho

São Bernardo · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

Foguinho↳ Pedro Vitor

21'

Foguinho

46'

Lucas Justen← Thalys

52'

Para↳ Rodrigo Ferreira

58'

Pedro Vitor

61'

Fabricio Daniel← Pedro Vitor

61'

Felipe Garcia← Daniel Amorim

67'

Luis Phelipe← Rodrigo Souza

67'

Miguel Morais← Diego Tavares

71'

Hyoran← Romisson

71'

Marcao Silva← Foguinho

74'

Marcio Silva

75'

Lucas Cunha

79'

Fabricio DanielPenalty

80'

Pedrinho← Echapora

85'

Brandao← Willian Pottker

86'

Jonathan Cafu← Bryan Borges

90'

Luis Phelipe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SãoPonte

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots11

1.69Expected Goals (xG)0.56

2Corners6

11Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots11

6On Target0

3Off Target6

2Blocked5

7Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

465Total Passes464

411Accurate Passes408

88%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

-0.41Goals Prevented-0.41

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2