São Bernardo 2–2 Cuiaba: Result & Stats | Serie B

São Bernardo

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Cuiaba

Rodrigo Ferreira 45+1'

Lucas Rian 7'

Alex Alves 29' (OG)

Marlon 12'

7/12/2026

Serie B · Round 17Estadio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

São Bernardo42%

×Draw30%

Cuiaba27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchCuiaba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.86

São Bernardo

1.14

Cuiaba

0.86

São Bernardo creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 30 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

0.89

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.00

Cuiaba

0.83

allows per match

São Bernardo

0.89

Cuiaba

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par

Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

Cuiaba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

73%

São Bernardo or Cuiaba

70%

Draw or Cuiaba

58%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

18%

Cuiaba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

68%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

32%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

11%

Cuiaba 1+ goals

58%

Cuiaba 2+ goals

21%

Cuiaba 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

60%

Cuiaba (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.00 + Cuiaba defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cuiaba attack 0.83 + São Bernardo defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

São Bernardo scores more

42%

level

30%

Cuiaba scores more

27%

São Bernardo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Dudu Miraíma

São Bernardo · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

Lucas Rian↳ Dudu Miraima

12'

Marlon↳ Pepe

29'

Alex AlvesOwn goal

45+1'

Rodrigo Ferreira↳ Daniel Amorim

46'

Jean Dias← Weverson

58'

Hyoran← Echapora

59'

Calebe Costa

61'

H. Pedro← Vinicius Peixoto

61'

David Miguel← Calebe Costa

74'

D. Davi← Foguinho

74'

Fabricio Daniel← Lucas Rian

75'

Raylan← Pepe

80'

Augusto

81'

D. Davi

88'

Marcao Silva← Dudu Miraima

88'

Lucas Reis← Daniel Amorim

89'

Rodrigo Rodrigues← Kauan Cristtyan

90+1'

Jean Dias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SãoCuiaba

Overview

73%Possession27%

11Total Shots9

0.74Expected Goals (xG)0.25

6Corners7

9Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target4

4Blocked2

5Inside Box3

6Outside Box6

Passing

73%Possession27%

609Total Passes212

533Accurate Passes135

88%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

-0.58Goals Prevented-0.58

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

Serie B: São Bernardo 2–2 Cuiaba

São Bernardo and Cuiaba drew 2-2 in Serie B on July 12, 2026.

Goals: Lucas Rian (7'), Marlon (12'), Alex Alves (29' o.g.), Rodrigo Ferreira (45+1').

São Bernardo controlled possession (73%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Primeiro de Maio in Sao Bernardo.

São Bernardo vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: São Bernardo 2–2 Cuiaba