São Bernardo 2–0 Caxias: Result & Stats | Serie C

São Bernardo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Caxias

Kayke 69'

Davi Gabriel 13'

8/4/2024

Serie C · Round 16Estádio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

São Bernardo51%

×Draw28%

Caxias21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchCaxias

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.77

São Bernardo

1.36

Caxias

0.77

São Bernardo creates 77% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 30 away

1.39

creates per match

0.77

0.76

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.39

Caxias

0.77

allows per match

São Bernardo

0.76

Caxias

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par

Caxias+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

Caxias →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

79%

São Bernardo or Caxias

72%

Draw or Caxias

49%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

25%

Caxias wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

74%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

39%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

16%

Caxias 1+ goals

54%

Caxias 2+ goals

18%

Caxias 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

71%

Caxias (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Caxias away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.39 + Caxias defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36

Caxias attack 0.77 + São Bernardo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

São Bernardo scores more

51%

level

28%

Caxias scores more

21%

São Bernardo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

Romisson

São Bernardo · M

7.7

Match Events

8'

Wesley Dias← Rodrigo Souza

13'

48'

57'

61'

65'

Arthur Henrique← Maycon Douglas

65'

J. Cristaldo← Kauã Jesus

67'

Arthur Neves← Geilson

67'

Peu← Robinho

67'

Welder← Álvaro

69'

Kayke

72'

Barba← Tomas Bastos

74'

Vitor Ricardo← J. Cristaldo

76'

Felipe Tontini← Elyeser

78'

Tomas Bastos

88'

Caetano← Kayke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SãoCaxias

Overview

53%Possession47%

7Total Shots11

0.81Expected Goals (xG)0.38

0Corners4

11Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots11

4On Target1

3Off Target8

0Blocked1

3Inside Box3

4Outside Box8

Passing

53%Possession47%

481Total Passes412

402Accurate Passes337

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: São Bernardo vs Caxias

São Bernardo beat Caxias 2-0 in Serie C on August 4, 2024.

Goals: Davi Gabriel (13'), Kayke (69').

São Bernardo controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio Primeiro de Maio in São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo.

São Bernardo vs Caxias — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: São Bernardo vs Caxias