São Bernardo 1–1 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

São Bernardo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ABC

R. Bastos 90'

Carlos Eduardo 78'

4/13/2025

Serie C · Round 1Estadio Primeiro de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

São Bernardo48%

×Draw29%

ABC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São BernardoExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.77

São Bernardo

1.27

ABC

0.77

São Bernardo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 53 away

1.39

creates per match

0.77

0.76

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

São Bernardo

1.39

ABC

0.77

allows per match

São Bernardo

0.76

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bernardo+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bernardo ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

São Bernardo or draw

77%

São Bernardo or ABC

71%

Draw or ABC

52%

Winning margin

São Bernardo wins by 2+

22%

ABC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

São Bernardo 1+ goals

72%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

36%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

14%

ABC 1+ goals

54%

ABC 2+ goals

18%

ABC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

68%

ABC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bernardo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bernardo attack 1.39 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

ABC attack 0.77 + São Bernardo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

São Bernardo scores more

48%

level

29%

ABC scores more

23%

São Bernardo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "São Bernardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Echapora

40'

56'

Wellington Reis

64'

Juninho← Anderson Rosa

64'

Danilo Alves← Danilo Mariotto

69'

Guilherme Queiroz

71'

Sillas← Echapora

71'

R. Bastos← Guilherme Queiroz

73'

Carlos Eduardo← Orlando Junior

73'

Matheus Martins← Ian

76'

Emerson Santos

77'

Dudu Miraima← Felipe Azevedo

77'

Foguinho← Emerson Santos

78'

Carlos Eduardo↳ Danilo Alves

80'

Lucas Goncalves← Wellington Reis

82'

Henry← Kaua Jesus

88'

Lucas Sampaio

90+5'

Lucas Goncalves

90'

R. Bastos

São

ABC

1

21

6

4

27

▼

Ian

15

Windson

14

▼

Reis

10

▼

Rosa

8

Maranhao

9

▼

Mariotto

28

▼

1

13

3

95

20

▼

Santos

17

Romisson

11

▼

Azevedo

77

▼

Queiroz

21

Sanches

7

▼

Echapora

33

▼

Jesus

Manager: Ricardo Catalá

71'▲Sillas←▼Echapora

71'▲R. Bastos←▼Guilherme Queiroz

77'▲Dudu Miraima←▼Felipe Azevedo

77'▲Foguinho←▼Emerson Santos

82'▲Henry←▼Kaua Jesus

São Bernardo substitutes

12Oliveira4Forster10Vitinho14Vinicius19Henry22Duarte25Carrerette26Miraima30Sillas32Bastos35Foguinho84Vanderlei

Manager: Evaristo Piza

64'▲Juninho←▼Anderson Rosa

64'▲Danilo Alves←▼Danilo Mariotto

73'▲Carlos Eduardo←▼Orlando Junior

73'▲Matheus Martins←▼Ian

80'▲Lucas Goncalves←▼Wellington Reis

ABC substitutes

12Paulo3Vischi17Octavio26Rocha2Ezequiel5Goncalves18Eduardo19Juninho7Martins20Islan23Alves

Serie C: São Bernardo 1–1 ABC

São Bernardo and ABC drew 1-1 in Serie C on April 13, 2025.

Goals: Carlos Eduardo (78'), R. Bastos (90').

The match was played at Estadio Primeiro de Maio in Sao Bernardo.

São Bernardo vs ABC — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: São Bernardo 1–1 ABC