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Sao Bento vs Santo André — League #475 2026

Sao Bento
Sao Bento
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Santo André
Santo André
1/17/2023League #475League #475 · Round 2Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sao Bento40%
×Draw33%
Santo André27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Bento
1.02
Santo André
0.78

Sao Bento creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Sao Bento
1.25
Santo André
0.80

allows per match

Sao Bento
0.75
Santo André
0.80

finishing

Sao Bento+0.00on par
Santo André+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Bento ↓

Santo André →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sao Bento or draw
73%
Sao Bento or Santo André
67%
Draw or Santo André
60%

Winning margin

Sao Bento wins by 2+
16%
Santo André wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sao Bento 1+ goals
64%
Sao Bento 2+ goals
27%
Sao Bento 3+ goals
8%
Santo André 1+ goals
54%
Santo André 2+ goals
18%
Santo André 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sao Bento (draw refunded)
60%
Santo André (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Bento at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Santo André away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Bento attack 1.25 + Santo André defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Santo André attack 0.80 + Sao Bento defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sao Bento scores more
40%
level
33%
Santo André scores more
27%

Sao Bento at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sao Bento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Bento vs Santo André

Sao Bento beat Santo André 2-1 in League #475 on January 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro in Sorocaba, São Paulo.