São Bento U20 2–1 União Suzano U20: Result & Stats

São Bento U20

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

União Suzano U20

Unknown 43', 30'

Unknown 14'

8/1/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

São Bento U2044%

×Draw26%

União Suzano U2030%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Bento U20Expected goals in this matchUnião Suzano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.17

São Bento U20

1.47

União Suzano U20

1.17

São Bento U20 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.35

creates per match

0.95

1.39

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

São Bento U20

1.35

União Suzano U20

0.95

allows per match

São Bento U20

1.39

União Suzano U20

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par

União Suzano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

União Suzano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw

70%

São Bento U20 or União Suzano U20

74%

Draw or União Suzano U20

56%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+

21%

União Suzano U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals

77%

São Bento U20 2+ goals

43%

São Bento U20 3+ goals

18%

União Suzano U20 1+ goals

69%

União Suzano U20 2+ goals

33%

União Suzano U20 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)

59%

União Suzano U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

União Suzano U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + União Suzano U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

União Suzano U20 attack 0.95 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

São Bento U20 scores more

44%

level

26%

União Suzano U20 scores more

30%

São Bento U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "São Bento U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

30'

43'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff