São Bento U20 0–1 União São João U20

São Bento U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

União São João U20

Unknown 35'

6/6/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

São Bento U2041%

×Draw27%

União São João U2033%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Bento U20Expected goals in this matchUnião São João U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.19

São Bento U20

1.36

União São João U20

1.19

São Bento U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

1.00

1.39

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

São Bento U20

1.35

União São João U20

1.00

allows per match

São Bento U20

1.39

União São João U20

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par

União São João U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

União São João U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw

67%

São Bento U20 or União São João U20

73%

Draw or União São João U20

59%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+

19%

União São João U20 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals

74%

São Bento U20 2+ goals

39%

São Bento U20 3+ goals

16%

União São João U20 1+ goals

70%

União São João U20 2+ goals

33%

União São João U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)

55%

União São João U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

União São João U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + União São João U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

União São João U20 attack 1.00 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

São Bento U20 scores more

41%

level

27%

União São João U20 scores more

33%

São Bento U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "São Bento U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff