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São Bento U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Bento U20
São Bento U20
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
S. de Jesus dos Santos 64' (pen)
Paulinho 49', 34'
Igor Felisberto 22'
9/6/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

São Bento U2024%
×Draw25%
São Paulo U2052%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Bento U20
1.04
São Paulo U20
1.65

São Paulo U20 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

São Bento U20
1.35
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

São Bento U20
1.39
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw
48%
São Bento U20 or São Paulo U20
75%
Draw or São Paulo U20
76%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+
9%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals
65%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
28%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
9%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
81%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
49%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
32%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.04

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

São Bento U20 scores more
24%
level
25%
São Paulo U20 scores more
52%

São Paulo U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "São Paulo U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Igor Felisberto
34'
Paulinho
49'
Paulinho
64'
S. de Jesus dos SantosPenalty
90+4'
S. de Jesus dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Bento U20 vs São Paulo U20

São Paulo U20 beat São Bento U20 4-0 in Paulista - U20 on September 6, 2024.

Goals: Igor Felisberto (22'), Paulinho (34', 49'), S. de Jesus dos Santos (64' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro in Sorocaba, São Paulo.