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São Bento U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Bento U20
São Bento U20
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
E. dos Santos 89'
L. Henrique 65'
G. Coelho Vicente da Silva 67'
P. H. Monteiro 56'
P. Duran 51', 38'
9/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

São Bento U2042%
×Draw24%
Referencia U2034%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Bento U20
1.61
Referencia U20
1.42

São Bento U20 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 24 away

creates per match

São Bento U20
1.35
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

São Bento U20
1.39
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 58Under: 4258%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw
66%
São Bento U20 or Referencia U20
76%
Draw or Referencia U20
58%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+
21%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals
80%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
48%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
22%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
76%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
41%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
55%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

São Bento U20 scores more
42%
level
24%
Referencia U20 scores more
34%

São Bento U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "São Bento U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
P. Duran
51'
P. Duran
56'
P. H. Monteiro
65'
L. Henrique
67'
G. Coelho Vicente da Silva
89'
E. dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Bento U20 vs Referencia U20

Referencia U20 beat São Bento U20 4-2 in Paulista - U20 on September 3, 2024.

Goals: P. Duran (38', 51'), P. H. Monteiro (56'), L. Henrique (65'), G. Coelho Vicente da Silva (67'), E. dos Santos (89').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro in Sorocaba, São Paulo.