São Bento U20 3–0 Jabaquara U20: Result & Stats

São Bento U20

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jabaquara U20

Unknown 85', 79', 38'

7/24/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

São Bento U2055%

×Draw23%

Jabaquara U2022%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Bento U20Expected goals in this matchJabaquara U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.05

São Bento U20

1.80

Jabaquara U20

1.05

São Bento U20 creates 71% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

0.71

1.39

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

São Bento U20

1.35

Jabaquara U20

0.71

allows per match

São Bento U20

1.39

Jabaquara U20

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par

Jabaquara U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

Jabaquara U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw

78%

São Bento U20 or Jabaquara U20

77%

Draw or Jabaquara U20

45%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+

31%

Jabaquara U20 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals

83%

São Bento U20 2+ goals

54%

São Bento U20 3+ goals

27%

Jabaquara U20 1+ goals

65%

Jabaquara U20 2+ goals

28%

Jabaquara U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)

71%

Jabaquara U20 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Jabaquara U20 away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + Jabaquara U20 defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.80

Jabaquara U20 attack 0.71 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

São Bento U20 scores more

55%

level

23%

Jabaquara U20 scores more

22%

São Bento U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "São Bento U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

79'

85'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff