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São Bento U20 vs Elosport U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

São Bento U20
São Bento U20
FT
3 – 0
Elosport U20
Elosport U20
5/24/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

São Bento U2078%
×Draw14%
Elosport U208%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Bento U20
2.78
Elosport U20
0.79

São Bento U20 creates 252% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

creates per match

São Bento U20
1.35
Elosport U20
0.20

allows per match

São Bento U20
1.39
Elosport U20
4.20

finishing

São Bento U20+0.00on par
Elosport U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Bento U20 ↓

Elosport U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

São Bento U20 or draw
92%
São Bento U20 or Elosport U20
86%
Draw or Elosport U20
22%

Winning margin

São Bento U20 wins by 2+
57%
Elosport U20 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

São Bento U20 1+ goals
94%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
76%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
51%
Elosport U20 1+ goals
55%
Elosport U20 2+ goals
19%
Elosport U20 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
91%
Elosport U20 (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Bento U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

Elosport U20 away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Bento U20 attack 1.35 + Elosport U20 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.78

Elosport U20 attack 0.20 + São Bento U20 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

São Bento U20 scores more
78%
level
14%
Elosport U20 scores more
8%

São Bento U20 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "São Bento U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: São Bento U20 vs Elosport U20

São Bento U20 beat Elosport U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Walter Ribeiro in Sorocaba, São Paulo.