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Santutxu vs Sestao River — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santutxu
Santutxu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sestao River
Sestao River
2/23/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Estadio Mallona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Santutxu29%
×Draw27%
Sestao River43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santutxu
1.06
Sestao River
1.35

Sestao River creates 27% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 28 away

creates per match

Santutxu
1.07
Sestao River
1.75

allows per match

Santutxu
0.96
Sestao River
1.04

finishing

Santutxu+0.00on par
Sestao River+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santutxu ↓

Sestao River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santutxu or draw
57%
Santutxu or Sestao River
73%
Draw or Sestao River
71%

Winning margin

Santutxu wins by 2+
11%
Sestao River wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Santutxu 1+ goals
65%
Santutxu 2+ goals
29%
Santutxu 3+ goals
9%
Sestao River 1+ goals
74%
Sestao River 2+ goals
39%
Sestao River 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Santutxu (draw refunded)
40%
Sestao River (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santutxu at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches

Sestao River away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.04 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santutxu attack 1.07 + Sestao River defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sestao River attack 1.75 + Santutxu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santutxu scores more
29%
level
27%
Sestao River scores more
43%

Sestao River at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sestao River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Santutxu 0–1 Sestao River

Sestao River beat Santutxu 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Mallona in Bilbao.