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Santurtzi vs San Ignacio — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santurtzi
Santurtzi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Ignacio
San Ignacio
2/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Santurtzi40%
×Draw30%
San Ignacio31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santurtzi
1.15
San Ignacio
0.98

Santurtzi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 112 away

creates per match

Santurtzi
1.13
San Ignacio
0.99

allows per match

Santurtzi
0.98
San Ignacio
1.17

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par
San Ignacio+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

San Ignacio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw
69%
Santurtzi or San Ignacio
70%
Draw or San Ignacio
60%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+
17%
San Ignacio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals
68%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
32%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
11%
San Ignacio 1+ goals
62%
San Ignacio 2+ goals
26%
San Ignacio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)
56%
San Ignacio (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

San Ignacio away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + San Ignacio defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

San Ignacio attack 0.99 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santurtzi scores more
40%
level
30%
San Ignacio scores more
31%

Santurtzi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Santurtzi 1–0 San Ignacio

Santurtzi beat San Ignacio 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Jorge in Santurtzi.