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Santurtzi vs Gernika — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santurtzi
Santurtzi
CANC
22:00
Gernika
Gernika
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 36Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Santurtzi31%
×Draw28%
Gernika42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santurtzi
1.06
Gernika
1.29

Gernika creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 27 away

creates per match

Santurtzi
1.13
Gernika
1.59

allows per match

Santurtzi
0.98
Gernika
1.00

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par
Gernika+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Gernika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw
58%
Santurtzi or Gernika
72%
Draw or Gernika
69%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+
12%
Gernika wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals
65%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
29%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
9%
Gernika 1+ goals
72%
Gernika 2+ goals
37%
Gernika 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)
42%
Gernika (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Gernika away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Gernika defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Gernika attack 1.59 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Santurtzi scores more
31%
level
28%
Gernika scores more
42%

Gernika at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gernika will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santurtzi host Gernika

May 2, 2020: Santurtzi take on Gernika in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Santurtzi host Gernika at Estadio San Jorge.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.