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Santurtzi vs Durango — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santurtzi
Santurtzi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Durango
Durango
3/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Santurtzi41%
×Draw29%
Durango30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santurtzi
1.20
Durango
0.97

Santurtzi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 114 away

creates per match

Santurtzi
1.13
Durango
0.96

allows per match

Santurtzi
0.98
Durango
1.27

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par
Durango+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Durango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw
70%
Santurtzi or Durango
71%
Draw or Durango
59%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+
18%
Durango wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals
70%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
34%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
12%
Durango 1+ goals
62%
Durango 2+ goals
25%
Durango 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)
58%
Durango (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Durango away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Durango defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Durango attack 0.96 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Santurtzi scores more
41%
level
29%
Durango scores more
30%

Santurtzi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santurtzi vs Durango

Santurtzi beat Durango 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Jorge in Santurtzi.