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Santurtzi vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santurtzi
Santurtzi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
5/3/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Santurtzi43%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Alavés III28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santurtzi
1.27
Deportivo Alavés III
0.96

Santurtzi creates 32% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 51 away

creates per match

Santurtzi
1.13
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Santurtzi
0.98
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw
72%
Santurtzi or Deportivo Alavés III
72%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
57%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals
72%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
36%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
62%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
25%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)
61%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Santurtzi scores more
43%
level
28%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
28%

Santurtzi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Santurtzi 2–0 Deportivo Alavés III

Santurtzi beat Deportivo Alavés III 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio San Jorge in Santurtzi.