Santurtzi 1–2 Balmaseda: Result & Stats

Santurtzi

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Balmaseda

5/29/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Santurtzi40%

×Draw30%

Balmaseda30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SanturtziExpected goals in this matchBalmaseda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.93

Santurtzi

1.13

Balmaseda

0.93

Santurtzi creates 22% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

0.87

0.98

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Santurtzi

1.13

Balmaseda

0.87

allows per match

Santurtzi

0.98

Balmaseda

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par

Balmaseda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Balmaseda →

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw

70%

Santurtzi or Balmaseda

70%

Draw or Balmaseda

60%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+

17%

Balmaseda wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals

68%

Santurtzi 2+ goals

31%

Santurtzi 3+ goals

11%

Balmaseda 1+ goals

61%

Balmaseda 2+ goals

24%

Balmaseda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)

57%

Balmaseda (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Balmaseda away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Balmaseda defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Balmaseda attack 0.87 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Santurtzi scores more

40%

level

30%

Balmaseda scores more

30%

Santurtzi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff