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Santurtzi vs Ariznabarra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Santurtzi
Santurtzi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ariznabarra
Ariznabarra
9/7/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 3Estadio San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santurtzi60%
×Draw24%
Ariznabarra16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santurtzi
1.69
Ariznabarra
0.75

Santurtzi creates 125% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 29 away

creates per match

Santurtzi
1.13
Ariznabarra
0.52

allows per match

Santurtzi
0.98
Ariznabarra
2.24

finishing

Santurtzi+0.00on par
Ariznabarra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santurtzi ↓

Ariznabarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Santurtzi or draw
84%
Santurtzi or Ariznabarra
76%
Draw or Ariznabarra
40%

Winning margin

Santurtzi wins by 2+
33%
Ariznabarra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Santurtzi 1+ goals
82%
Santurtzi 2+ goals
50%
Santurtzi 3+ goals
24%
Ariznabarra 1+ goals
53%
Ariznabarra 2+ goals
17%
Ariznabarra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santurtzi (draw refunded)
79%
Ariznabarra (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santurtzi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.98 · 62 matches

Ariznabarra away — creates 0.52, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santurtzi attack 1.13 + Ariznabarra defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.69

Ariznabarra attack 0.52 + Santurtzi defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Santurtzi scores more
60%
level
24%
Ariznabarra scores more
16%

Santurtzi at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Santurtzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Santurtzi 1–0 Ariznabarra

Santurtzi beat Ariznabarra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Jorge in Santurtzi.