Sants vs Vilassar Mar: Preview & Prediction

Sants

CANC

00:00

Vilassar Mar

3/21/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sants42%

×Draw28%

Vilassar Mar29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantsExpected goals in this matchVilassar Mar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.00

Sants

1.26

Vilassar Mar

1.00

Sants creates 26% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 109 away

1.33

creates per match

0.92

1.07

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Sants

1.33

Vilassar Mar

0.92

allows per match

Sants

1.07

Vilassar Mar

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sants+0.00on par

Vilassar Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Vilassar Mar →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sants or draw

71%

Sants or Vilassar Mar

72%

Draw or Vilassar Mar

58%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+

19%

Vilassar Mar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals

72%

Sants 2+ goals

36%

Sants 3+ goals

13%

Vilassar Mar 1+ goals

63%

Vilassar Mar 2+ goals

26%

Vilassar Mar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)

59%

Vilassar Mar (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Vilassar Mar away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Vilassar Mar defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.26

Vilassar Mar attack 0.92 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sants scores more

42%

level

28%

Vilassar Mar scores more

29%

Sants at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sants host Vilassar Mar

March 21, 2020: Sants take on Vilassar Mar in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sants host Vilassar Mar at Camp de Futbol Energia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Sants vs Vilassar Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Sants host Vilassar Mar