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Sants vs Terrassa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sants
Sants
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Terrassa
Terrassa
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sants33%
×Draw28%
Terrassa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sants
1.09
Terrassa
1.22

Terrassa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sants
1.33
Terrassa
1.36

allows per match

Sants
1.07
Terrassa
0.86

finishing

Sants+0.00on par
Terrassa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Terrassa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sants or draw
61%
Sants or Terrassa
72%
Draw or Terrassa
67%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+
13%
Terrassa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals
66%
Sants 2+ goals
30%
Sants 3+ goals
10%
Terrassa 1+ goals
70%
Terrassa 2+ goals
34%
Terrassa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)
46%
Terrassa (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Terrassa away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.86 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Terrassa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Terrassa attack 1.36 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sants scores more
33%
level
28%
Terrassa scores more
39%

Terrassa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Terrassa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Sants 1–1 Terrassa

Sants and Terrassa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Energia in Barcelona.