Sants 0–0 Girona II: Result & Stats

Sants

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Girona II

12/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sants35%

×Draw29%

Girona II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantsExpected goals in this matchGirona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.15

Sants

1.12

Girona II

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 78 away

1.33

creates per match

1.23

1.07

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Sants

1.33

Girona II

1.23

allows per match

Sants

1.07

Girona II

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sants+0.00on par

Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Girona II →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sants or draw

64%

Sants or Girona II

71%

Draw or Girona II

65%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+

14%

Girona II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals

67%

Sants 2+ goals

31%

Sants 3+ goals

10%

Girona II 1+ goals

68%

Girona II 2+ goals

32%

Girona II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)

49%

Girona II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.12

Girona II attack 1.23 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sants scores more

35%

level

29%

Girona II scores more

36%

Girona II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff