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Sants vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sants
Sants
CANC
00:00
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
3/28/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 31Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sants44%
×Draw27%
Cerdanyola del Vallès29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sants
1.39
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

Sants creates 29% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sants
1.33
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Sants
1.07
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Sants+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sants or draw
71%
Sants or Cerdanyola del Vallès
73%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
56%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+
21%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals
75%
Sants 2+ goals
40%
Sants 3+ goals
16%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
66%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
29%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)
60%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sants scores more
44%
level
27%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
29%

Sants at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sants vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Match Preview

Sants face Cerdanyola del Vallès on March 28, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sants host Cerdanyola del Vallès at Camp de Futbol Energia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.