Sants 1–1 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Sants

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Castelldefels

Guillermo Torres 90+3' (pen)

Kike Ramírez 42'

12/19/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Camp de Futbol Energia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sants41%

×Draw28%

Castelldefels31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantsExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Sants

1.29

Castelldefels

1.07

Sants creates 21% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 74 away

1.33

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sants

1.33

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Sants

1.07

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sants+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sants ↓

Castelldefels →

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sants or draw

69%

Sants or Castelldefels

72%

Draw or Castelldefels

59%

Winning margin

Sants wins by 2+

19%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sants 1+ goals

72%

Sants 2+ goals

37%

Sants 3+ goals

14%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

66%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

29%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sants (draw refunded)

57%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sants at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sants attack 1.33 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Sants defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sants scores more

41%

level

28%

Castelldefels scores more

31%

Sants at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

Carles Gallardo← Fran Fuentes

42'

Kike Ramírez

46'

Gonzalo Carmona← Adrià Prado

46'

Guillermo Torres← Víctor Rodríguez

46'

Marc Rayo← Xavi Laborde

61'

Fran Orellana← Kevin Díaz

85'

Jordi Sancho← F. Osorio

86'

Miguel Marin← Kike Ramírez

86'

Blasco← Aitor Serrano

90+3'

Guillermo TorresPenalty

Sants

Castelldefels

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Tito Lossio

46'▲Gonzalo Carmona←▼Adrià Prado

46'▲Guillermo Torres←▼Víctor Rodríguez

46'▲Marc Rayo←▼Xavi Laborde

85'▲Jordi Sancho←▼F. Osorio

Sants substitutes

CarmonaTorresRayoSancho

Manager: Miki Carrillo

37'▲Carles Gallardo←▼Fran Fuentes

61'▲Fran Orellana←▼Kevin Díaz

86'▲Miguel Marin←▼Kike Ramírez

86'▲Blasco←▼Aitor Serrano

Castelldefels substitutes

GallardoOrellanaMarinBlasco