Santos W 4–0 Vitória PE W: Result & Stats

Santos W

FT

4 – 0

Vitória PE W

7/20/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Úlrico Mursa (Santos, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Santos W89%

×Draw8%

Vitória PE W3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos WExpected goals in this matchVitória PE W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.47

0.54

Santos W

3.47

Vitória PE W

0.54

Santos W creates 543% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 8 away

2.31

creates per match

0.13

0.95

allows per match

4.63

creates per match

Santos W

2.31

Vitória PE W

0.13

allows per match

Santos W

0.95

Vitória PE W

4.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par

Vitória PE W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Vitória PE W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Santos W or draw

97%

Santos W or Vitória PE W

92%

Draw or Vitória PE W

11%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+

74%

Vitória PE W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals

97%

Santos W 2+ goals

85%

Santos W 3+ goals

65%

Vitória PE W 1+ goals

42%

Vitória PE W 2+ goals

10%

Vitória PE W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)

97%

Vitória PE W (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Vitória PE W away — creates 0.13, concedes 4.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + Vitória PE W defence 4.63 → ÷2 → 3.47

Vitória PE W attack 0.13 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Santos W scores more

89%

level

8%

Vitória PE W scores more

3%

Santos W at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff