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Santos W vs Vitoria Das Tab. W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Santos W
Santos W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitoria Das Tab. W
Vitoria Das Tab. W
7/17/2018Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · GROUP B - Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Santos W71%
×Draw18%
Vitoria Das Tab. W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos W
2.23
Vitoria Das Tab. W
0.76

Santos W creates 193% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 7 away

creates per match

Santos W
2.31
Vitoria Das Tab. W
0.57

allows per match

Santos W
0.95
Vitoria Das Tab. W
2.14

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par
Vitoria Das Tab. W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Vitoria Das Tab. W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Santos W or draw
89%
Santos W or Vitoria Das Tab. W
82%
Draw or Vitoria Das Tab. W
29%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+
47%
Vitoria Das Tab. W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals
89%
Santos W 2+ goals
65%
Santos W 3+ goals
38%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 1+ goals
53%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 2+ goals
18%
Vitoria Das Tab. W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)
86%
Vitoria Das Tab. W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Vitoria Das Tab. W away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + Vitoria Das Tab. W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.23

Vitoria Das Tab. W attack 0.57 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Santos W scores more
71%
level
18%
Vitoria Das Tab. W scores more
11%

Santos W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Santos W 2–0 Vitoria Das Tab. W

Santos W beat Vitoria Das Tab. W 2-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 17, 2018.