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Santos W vs Sport Recife W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Santos W
Santos W
FT
9 – 0
HT: 6 – 0
Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
7/13/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Úlrico Mursa (Santos, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Santos W75%
×Draw15%
Sport Recife W10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos W
2.63
Sport Recife W
0.86

Santos W creates 206% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 23 away

creates per match

Santos W
2.31
Sport Recife W
0.78

allows per match

Santos W
0.95
Sport Recife W
2.96

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par
Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Sport Recife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Santos W or draw
90%
Santos W or Sport Recife W
85%
Draw or Sport Recife W
25%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+
53%
Sport Recife W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals
93%
Santos W 2+ goals
73%
Santos W 3+ goals
48%
Sport Recife W 1+ goals
58%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
21%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)
88%
Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.63

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Santos W scores more
75%
level
15%
Sport Recife W scores more
10%

Santos W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santos W 9 – 0 Sport Recife W

Santos W beat Sport Recife W 9-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Úlrico Mursa (Santos, São Paulo).