Santos W 8–0 Sao Francisco W: Result & Stats

Santos W

FT

8 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sao Francisco W

3/27/2019

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira (Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Santos W82%

×Draw11%

Sao Francisco W6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos WExpected goals in this matchSao Francisco W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.05

0.74

Santos W

3.05

Sao Francisco W

0.74

Santos W creates 312% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

2.31

creates per match

0.53

0.95

allows per match

3.80

creates per match

Santos W

2.31

Sao Francisco W

0.53

allows per match

Santos W

0.95

Sao Francisco W

3.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par

Sao Francisco W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Sao Francisco W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Santos W or draw

94%

Santos W or Sao Francisco W

89%

Draw or Sao Francisco W

18%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+

63%

Sao Francisco W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals

95%

Santos W 2+ goals

80%

Santos W 3+ goals

57%

Sao Francisco W 1+ goals

52%

Sao Francisco W 2+ goals

17%

Sao Francisco W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)

93%

Sao Francisco W (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Sao Francisco W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + Sao Francisco W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.05

Sao Francisco W attack 0.53 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Santos W scores more

82%

level

11%

Sao Francisco W scores more

6%

Santos W at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Santos W 8–0 Sao Francisco W

Santos W beat Sao Francisco W 8-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Francisco Ribeiro Nogueira (Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo).

Santos W vs Sao Francisco W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Brasileiro Women: Santos W 8–0 Sao Francisco W