Santos W 1–1 RB Bragantino W: Result & Stats

Santos W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

RB Bragantino W

Gi Fernandes 85'

Mylena Gomes 45+3'

6/19/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Santos W61%

×Draw21%

RB Bragantino W17%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos WExpected goals in this matchRB Bragantino W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

0.94

Santos W

1.97

RB Bragantino W

0.94

Santos W creates 110% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 30 away

2.32

creates per match

0.93

0.95

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Santos W

2.32

RB Bragantino W

0.93

allows per match

Santos W

0.95

RB Bragantino W

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par

RB Bragantino W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

RB Bragantino W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Santos W or draw

83%

Santos W or RB Bragantino W

79%

Draw or RB Bragantino W

39%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+

37%

RB Bragantino W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals

86%

Santos W 2+ goals

58%

Santos W 3+ goals

31%

RB Bragantino W 1+ goals

61%

RB Bragantino W 2+ goals

24%

RB Bragantino W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)

78%

RB Bragantino W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

RB Bragantino W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.32 + RB Bragantino W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.97

RB Bragantino W attack 0.93 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Santos W scores more

61%

level

21%

RB Bragantino W scores more

17%

Santos W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

Gi Fernandes← Thais Guedes

45+3'

Mylena Gomes

46'

Jaini← Camila Aguiar

46'

Júlia← Laura Valverde

63'

Luana Lima← Rosani

72'

Carol← Guyd

72'

Hadrielen← Rhayanna

74'

Analuyza← Ketlen

83'

Brenda Pinheiro← Mylena Gomes

83'

Letícia Monteiro← Joyce

85'

Gi Fernandes

Santos

RB

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Tatiele Silveira

44'▲Gi Fernandes←▼Thais Guedes

46'▲Jaini←▼Camila Aguiar

46'▲Júlia←▼Laura Valverde

74'▲Analuyza←▼Ketlen

Santos W substitutes

FernandesJainiJúliaAnaluyzaBeatrizBruninhaCamilaStábileMatosKakáReisSassa

Manager: Rosana

63'▲Luana Lima←▼Rosani

72'▲Carol←▼Guyd

72'▲Hadrielen←▼Rhayanna

83'▲Brenda Pinheiro←▼Mylena Gomes

83'▲Letícia Monteiro←▼Joyce

RB Bragantino W substitutes

LimaCarolHadrielenPinheiroMonteiroKarolFlores

Match Recap: Santos W vs RB Bragantino W

Santos W and RB Bragantino W drew 1-1 in Brasileiro Women on June 19, 2022.

Goals: Mylena Gomes (45+3'), Gi Fernandes (85').

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.

Santos W vs RB Bragantino W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Santos W vs RB Bragantino W