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Santos W vs Ponte Preta W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Santos W
Santos W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
4/24/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Úlrico Mursa (Santos, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Santos W72%
×Draw17%
Ponte Preta W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos W
2.31
Ponte Preta W
0.77

Santos W creates 200% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 22 away

creates per match

Santos W
2.31
Ponte Preta W
0.59

allows per match

Santos W
0.95
Ponte Preta W
2.32

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par
Ponte Preta W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Ponte Preta W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Santos W or draw
89%
Santos W or Ponte Preta W
83%
Draw or Ponte Preta W
28%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+
48%
Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals
90%
Santos W 2+ goals
67%
Santos W 3+ goals
40%
Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
54%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
18%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)
87%
Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Ponte Preta W away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 2.31

Ponte Preta W attack 0.59 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Santos W scores more
72%
level
17%
Ponte Preta W scores more
11%

Santos W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santos W 1 – 0 Ponte Preta W

Santos W beat Ponte Preta W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on April 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Úlrico Mursa (Santos, São Paulo).