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Santos W vs Napoli W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Santos W
Santos W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Napoli W
Napoli W
4/29/2021Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Santos W84%
×Draw10%
Napoli W5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos W
3.22
Napoli W
0.72

Santos W creates 347% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 8 away

creates per match

Santos W
2.31
Napoli W
0.50

allows per match

Santos W
0.95
Napoli W
4.13

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par
Napoli W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Napoli W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Santos W or draw
95%
Santos W or Napoli W
90%
Draw or Napoli W
16%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+
67%
Napoli W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals
96%
Santos W 2+ goals
82%
Santos W 3+ goals
61%
Napoli W 1+ goals
51%
Napoli W 2+ goals
16%
Napoli W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)
94%
Napoli W (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Napoli W away — creates 0.50, concedes 4.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + Napoli W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 3.22

Napoli W attack 0.50 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Santos W scores more
84%
level
10%
Napoli W scores more
5%

Santos W at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Santos W 5–1 Napoli W

Santos W beat Napoli W 5-1 in Brasileiro Women on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.