Santos W 4–1 Flamengo W: Result & Stats

Santos W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Flamengo W

Camila Martins 90+3'

Ketlen 90+1', 22'

Bia Menezes 54'

Leidiane 18'

6/25/2023

Brasileiro Women · Quarter-finalsEstádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Santos W55%

×Draw23%

Flamengo W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos WExpected goals in this matchFlamengo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.13

Santos W

1.88

Flamengo W

1.13

Santos W creates 66% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 65 away

2.34

creates per match

1.32

0.93

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Santos W

2.34

Flamengo W

1.32

allows per match

Santos W

0.93

Flamengo W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par

Flamengo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Flamengo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Santos W or draw

77%

Santos W or Flamengo W

77%

Draw or Flamengo W

45%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+

31%

Flamengo W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals

85%

Santos W 2+ goals

56%

Santos W 3+ goals

29%

Flamengo W 1+ goals

68%

Flamengo W 2+ goals

31%

Flamengo W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)

71%

Flamengo W (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.34, concedes 0.93 · 61 matches

Flamengo W away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.34 + Flamengo W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.88

Flamengo W attack 1.32 + Santos W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Santos W scores more

55%

level

23%

Flamengo W scores more

23%

Santos W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Leidiane

22'

Ketlen

46'

Kaká← R. Bonta

53'

Laysa← Cris

54'

Bia Menezes

63'

Gica← Leidiane

63'

Thaís Regina← Jucinara

69'

Rayanne← Daiane

79'

Ana Carla← Fabi Simões

79'

J. Ziff← Cristiane

83'

Giovana← Gi Fernandes

83'

Laura Valverde← Brena

90+1'

Ketlen

90+3'

Camila Martins

Santos

Flamengo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Kleiton Lima

46'▲Kaká←▼R. Bonta

79'▲Ana Carla←▼Fabi Simões

79'▲J. Ziff←▼Cristiane

83'▲Giovana←▼Gi Fernandes

83'▲Laura Valverde←▼Brena

Santos W substitutes

KakáCarlaZiffGiovanaValverdeBiaGomesVianaJúliaJullyKellyTayla

Manager: Luís Andrade

53'▲Laysa←▼Cris

63'▲Gica←▼Leidiane

63'▲Thaís Regina←▼Jucinara

69'▲Rayanne←▼Daiane

Flamengo W substitutes

LaysaGicaReginaRayanneAlvesJúniorNúbia