Santos W 5–3 ESMAC W: Result & Stats

Santos W

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

ESMAC W

Brena 90'

Jane 78'

Cristiane 58', 4' (pen)

Ketlen 8'

Gis 60'

Nathalia 34'

Luciene Baião 26'

6/5/2022

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Santos W74%

×Draw15%

ESMAC W11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos WExpected goals in this matchESMAC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

0.97

Santos W

2.72

ESMAC W

0.97

Santos W creates 180% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 8 away

2.31

creates per match

1.00

0.95

allows per match

3.13

creates per match

Santos W

2.31

ESMAC W

1.00

allows per match

Santos W

0.95

ESMAC W

3.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par

ESMAC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

ESMAC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Santos W or draw

89%

Santos W or ESMAC W

85%

Draw or ESMAC W

26%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+

52%

ESMAC W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals

93%

Santos W 2+ goals

75%

Santos W 3+ goals

50%

ESMAC W 1+ goals

62%

ESMAC W 2+ goals

25%

ESMAC W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)

87%

ESMAC W (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

ESMAC W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + ESMAC W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.72

ESMAC W attack 1.00 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Santos W scores more

74%

level

15%

ESMAC W scores more

11%

Santos W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

CristianePenalty

8'

Ketlen

13'

Bruninha

14'

Camila

26'

Luciene Baião

32'

Camila

32'

Camila

34'

Jaini← Ketlen

34'

Nathalia

46'

E. Stábile← Bia Menezes

49'

N. Branco

51'

Júlia← Erika

56'

Lora Capanema

58'

Cristiane

60'

Gis

71'

Camila Brito← Nathalia

78'

Jane

80'

Ana Carla← Thais Guedes

90'

Brena

Santos

ESMAC

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: Tatiele Silveira

34'▲Jaini←▼Ketlen

46'▲E. Stábile←▼Bia Menezes

51'▲Júlia←▼Erika

80'▲Ana Carla←▼Thais Guedes

Santos W substitutes

JainiStábileJúliaCarlaGaduKakáValverdeReisSassaViviane

Manager: Breno Luis

71'▲Camila Brito←▼Nathalia

ESMAC W substitutes

BritoIzaCastroMikaPaixão