Santos W 2–0 Atlético Mineiro W: Result & Stats

Santos W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Mineiro W

5/21/2023

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 12Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Santos W64%

×Draw20%

Atlético Mineiro W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santos WExpected goals in this matchAtlético Mineiro W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.99

Santos W

2.17

Atlético Mineiro W

0.99

Santos W creates 119% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 30 away

2.31

creates per match

1.03

0.95

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Santos W

2.31

Atlético Mineiro W

1.03

allows per match

Santos W

0.95

Atlético Mineiro W

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos W+0.00on par

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos W ↓

Atlético Mineiro W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Santos W or draw

84%

Santos W or Atlético Mineiro W

80%

Draw or Atlético Mineiro W

36%

Winning margin

Santos W wins by 2+

41%

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Santos W 1+ goals

89%

Santos W 2+ goals

64%

Santos W 3+ goals

36%

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals

63%

Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals

26%

Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Santos W (draw refunded)

80%

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos W at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

Atlético Mineiro W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos W attack 2.31 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.17

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.03 + Santos W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Santos W scores more

64%

level

20%

Atlético Mineiro W scores more

16%

Santos W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Santos W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff