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Santos vs Voorwaarts — Eerste Divisie 2019

Santos
Santos
FT
1 – 0
Voorwaarts
Voorwaarts
3/18/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 10Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santos15%
×Draw16%
Voorwaarts70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.27
Voorwaarts
2.87

Voorwaarts creates 126% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 59 away

creates per match

Santos
1.38
Voorwaarts
1.95

allows per match

Santos
3.79
Voorwaarts
1.17

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Voorwaarts+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Voorwaarts →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Santos or draw
30%
Santos or Voorwaarts
84%
Draw or Voorwaarts
85%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
6%
Voorwaarts wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
72%
Santos 2+ goals
36%
Santos 3+ goals
14%
Voorwaarts 1+ goals
94%
Voorwaarts 2+ goals
77%
Voorwaarts 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
17%
Voorwaarts (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 3.79 · 29 matches

Voorwaarts away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.38 + Voorwaarts defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Voorwaarts attack 1.95 + Santos defence 3.79 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Santos scores more
15%
level
16%
Voorwaarts scores more
70%

Voorwaarts at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Voorwaarts will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos vs Voorwaarts

Santos beat Voorwaarts 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.