Santos 3–2 Universidad Catolica: Result & Stats

Santos

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Universidad Catolica

B. Angulo 85'

Léo Baptistão 78' (pen)

J. Julio 15'

K. Minda 42'

C. Martínez 26'

4/13/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Santos45%

×Draw28%

Universidad Catolica28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchUniversidad Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Santos

1.33

Universidad Catolica

0.98

Santos creates 36% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

1.13

0.83

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Santos

1.33

Universidad Catolica

1.13

allows per match

Santos

0.83

Universidad Catolica

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos+0.00on par

Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Universidad Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Santos or draw

72%

Santos or Universidad Catolica

72%

Draw or Universidad Catolica

55%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

21%

Universidad Catolica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

74%

Santos 2+ goals

38%

Santos 3+ goals

15%

Universidad Catolica 1+ goals

62%

Universidad Catolica 2+ goals

26%

Universidad Catolica 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

62%

Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.33 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Santos defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Santos scores more

45%

level

28%

Universidad Catolica scores more

28%

Santos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Léo Baptistão

Santos · F

7.7

Match Events

7'

Willian Maranhão

15'

J. Julio↳ Mádson

26'

C. Martínez↳ I. Díaz

42'

K. Minda

46'

Vinicius Zanocelo← Willian Maranhão

53'

Ângelo← Lucas Braga

66'

Léo Baptistão← Ricardo Goulart

69'

A. Ordóñez← C. Martínez

72'

Willian Cevallos

72'

W. Cevallos← S. Zamora

77'

Yuber Mosquera

78'

Léo BaptistãoPenalty

80'

Facundo Martinez

82'

Lucas Barbosa← J. Julio

82'

Gabriel Pirani← R. Fernández

85'

B. Angulo↳ Lucas Barbosa

87'

R. Rivas← G. Cortez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosUniversidad

Overview

53%Possession47%

12Total Shots11

4Corners1

13Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots11

4On Target4

4Off Target6

4Blocked1

10Inside Box5

2Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

390Total Passes354

320Accurate Passes280

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0