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Santos vs Union Huaral — Segunda División 2018

Santos
Santos
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Union Huaral
Union Huaral
8/5/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 1Estadio Universidad San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Santos48%
×Draw25%
Union Huaral28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.60
Union Huaral
1.16

Santos creates 38% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 66 away

creates per match

Santos
1.56
Union Huaral
1.32

allows per match

Santos
1.00
Union Huaral
1.64

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Union Huaral+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Union Huaral →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Santos or draw
72%
Santos or Union Huaral
75%
Draw or Union Huaral
52%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
25%
Union Huaral wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
80%
Santos 2+ goals
47%
Santos 3+ goals
22%
Union Huaral 1+ goals
69%
Union Huaral 2+ goals
32%
Union Huaral 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
63%
Union Huaral (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Union Huaral away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.64 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.56 + Union Huaral defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.60

Union Huaral attack 1.32 + Santos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Santos scores more
48%
level
25%
Union Huaral scores more
28%

Santos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Santos vs Union Huaral

Union Huaral beat Santos 3-1 in Segunda División on August 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Universidad San Marcos in Lima.