Santos 1–1 Novorizontino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Santos

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Novorizontino

R. Otero 32'

Pablo Dyego 4'

9/24/2024

Serie B · Round 28Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Santos51%

×Draw27%

Novorizontino22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.81

Santos

1.40

Novorizontino

0.81

Santos creates 73% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 86 away

1.79

creates per match

0.93

0.68

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Santos

1.79

Novorizontino

0.93

allows per match

Santos

0.68

Novorizontino

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santos+0.00on par

Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Santos or draw

78%

Santos or Novorizontino

73%

Draw or Novorizontino

49%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

25%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

75%

Santos 2+ goals

41%

Santos 3+ goals

17%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

56%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

19%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

70%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.01 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.79 + Novorizontino defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.40

Novorizontino attack 0.93 + Santos defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Santos scores more

51%

level

27%

Novorizontino scores more

22%

Santos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

Pablo Dyego

Novorizontino · F

7.6

Match Events

4'

Pablo Dyego↳ Patrick

22'

Luisão← César Martins

32'

R. Otero↳ Wendel

36'

Patrick

46'

Reverson← Patrick

46'

Igor Formiga← Rodrigo Soares

47'

Igor Formiga

54'

WaguininhoGoal Disallowed

61'

Renato Palm← Rafael Donato

73'

J. Furch← Giuliano

73'

I. Laquintana← R. Otero

77'

Renato

79'

Serginho← Wendel

79'

Sandry← Diego Pituca

79'

Léo Tocantins← Waguininho

88'

M. Terceros← Guilherme

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SantosNovorizontino

Overview

61%Possession39%

11Total Shots12

2Corners1

14Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target5

4Off Target6

3Blocked1

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

506Total Passes308

410Accurate Passes205

81%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0