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Santos vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Santos
Santos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
8/4/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 9Estadio Municipal de Nasca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Santos64%
×Draw19%
LOS Caimanes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
2.26
LOS Caimanes
1.08

Santos creates 109% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 25 away

creates per match

Santos
1.56
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Santos
1.00
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Santos or draw
83%
Santos or LOS Caimanes
81%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
36%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
41%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
89%
Santos 2+ goals
66%
Santos 3+ goals
39%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
66%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
29%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
79%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.56 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.26

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Santos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Santos scores more
64%
level
19%
LOS Caimanes scores more
17%

Santos at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Santos 1–0 LOS Caimanes

Santos beat LOS Caimanes 1-0 in Segunda División on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Nasca in Nazca.