Santos 0–2 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats | Serie A

Santos

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fortaleza EC

11/13/2022

Serie A · Round 38Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Santos53%

×Draw24%

Fortaleza EC24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.06

Santos

1.71

Fortaleza EC

1.06

Santos creates 61% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

1.30

creates per match

0.97

1.16

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Santos

1.30

Fortaleza EC

0.97

allows per match

Santos

1.16

Fortaleza EC

2.12

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Santos-0.13scores less

Fortaleza EC-0.11scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Santos or draw

76%

Santos or Fortaleza EC

76%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

47%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

29%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

82%

Santos 2+ goals

51%

Santos 3+ goals

24%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

65%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

29%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

69%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.16 · 18 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.12 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.30 + Fortaleza EC defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 + Santos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Santos scores more

53%

level

24%

Fortaleza EC scores more

24%

Santos at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff