Santos 2–3 Flamengo: Result & Stats | Serie A

Santos

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Flamengo

6/25/2023

Serie A · Round 12Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Santos36%

×Draw27%

Flamengo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SantosExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.26

Santos

1.23

Flamengo

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.30

creates per match

1.36

1.16

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Santos

1.30

Flamengo

1.36

allows per match

Santos

1.16

Flamengo

1.16

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Santos-0.13scores less

Flamengo+0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santos or draw

63%

Santos or Flamengo

73%

Draw or Flamengo

64%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+

15%

Flamengo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals

71%

Santos 2+ goals

35%

Santos 3+ goals

13%

Flamengo 1+ goals

72%

Flamengo 2+ goals

36%

Flamengo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)

49%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.16 · 18 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.30 + Flamengo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Flamengo attack 1.36 + Santos defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Santos scores more

36%

level

27%

Flamengo scores more

37%

Flamengo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff