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Santos vs Cuiaba — Serie A 2026

Santos
Santos
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
5/8/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 5Estádio Urbano Caldeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Santos47%
×Draw28%
Cuiaba25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.34
Cuiaba
0.90

Santos creates 49% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 76 away

creates per match

Santos
1.54
Cuiaba
0.79

allows per match

Santos
1.01
Cuiaba
1.14

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Santos or draw
75%
Santos or Cuiaba
72%
Draw or Cuiaba
53%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
22%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
74%
Santos 2+ goals
39%
Santos 3+ goals
15%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
59%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
23%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
65%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.14 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.54 + Cuiaba defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cuiaba attack 0.79 + Santos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Santos scores more
47%
level
28%
Cuiaba scores more
25%

Santos at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santos 4 – 1 Cuiaba

Santos beat Cuiaba 4-1 in Serie A on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, São Paulo.