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Santos vs Ayacucho FC — Segunda División 2018

Santos
Santos
CANC
00:00
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
4/2/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Santos49%
×Draw24%
Ayacucho FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Santos
1.71
Ayacucho FC
1.23

Santos creates 39% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 29 away

creates per match

Santos
1.56
Ayacucho FC
1.45

allows per match

Santos
1.00
Ayacucho FC
1.86

finishing

Santos+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santos ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Santos or draw
72%
Santos or Ayacucho FC
76%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
51%

Winning margin

Santos wins by 2+
26%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Santos 1+ goals
82%
Santos 2+ goals
51%
Santos 3+ goals
24%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
71%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
35%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Santos (draw refunded)
64%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Santos at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Santos attack 1.56 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ayacucho FC attack 1.45 + Santos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Santos scores more
49%
level
24%
Ayacucho FC scores more
28%

Santos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Santos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Santos face Ayacucho FC (Segunda División)

Segunda División returns with Santos hosting Ayacucho FC. Match starts April 2, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.